Tampa Bay Real Estate Forecast For 2019

Deborah Wright
Deborah Wright
Published on February 17, 2019

One of the most common questions I hear is, “Are we headed for a real estate market crash in 2019?” Markets can be unpredictable and can be influenced by unforeseen events, so we have to look at historical patterns and the indicators that can be seen and predicted. In this video, I will tell you what I believe the Tampa Bay real estate market will do in 2019, and the factors that support my forecast.

(transcript below)

Hey there this is Debbie Wright with Charles Rutenberg Realty, serving all of Tampa Bay including Saint Pete to Clearwater, and I’m here to talk to you today about the Tampa Bay real estate market 2019 so follow me.

Okay so the most frequently asked question I get is, is the market going to crash again? Well, the short answer is no, I don’t think it’s going to crash. Is it going to adjust? Yeah, we’ve been feeling that adjustment in 2018, and I think we’re still going to feel it. And so what I want to do is just historically kind of summarize where we’ve been, that will help us figure out where we’re going.

So if we look at the historical data in Tampa Bay, the crash of ’06 to ’08, everybody tanked, prices tanked, you know the economy tanked, we had predatory lending practices, everybody gets to buy a home mentality, there are a lot of things that went wrong. So that being said, obviously the federal government has corrected a lot of that with regulation and how lenders are allowed to lend, and what’s going on in the market. We even see that right now, there are been a lot of, some defaults that have increased lately, and so the lenders are getting a little bit tighter, and interest rates are ticking up. So I mean, it’s all like this little cocktail. We have to pay attention to all the signs along the way, but for a general rule, we waded through so much inventory of the crash. We are at an equity point where we should be, based on where we left off. If you look at ’06 to now, we’re right where we should’ve been had we just kept on that steady two to three percent rise.

So we’re cooling off, we’re balancing out now. We don’t have that extreme sellers market we had over the past three, three to five years. And I was involved in that too with my home. I was in a bidding war, just like everybody else, overbidding for properties and stuff. So, a lot of that we haven’t seen in the last year, we have seen the multiple offer situation but not like it was, not that feverish “there’s no inventory” feel and we are low in inventory. It’s not where it should be or where we’d like it to be, but for the most part, we’re seeing a lot of those investors, hopefully as leases come up, they’ll start shedding some other properties. I’ve noticed that recently, you know, a lot of the properties coming on the market, or just investors kind of tired of the renting game and like to liquidate some of their properties. And they’re getting handsomely rewarded with lots of good equity, because they held onto them for over 10 years. That leads me to my point: the general rule of thumb is the real estate market is a seven to ten year flow, you buy low, you sell high, and that’s what’s happening here.

You know, obviously the variable of the crash is in there, but for the most part, if you remove that, it’s still the same. That’s typically how it goes,. So we are scheduled for a cooling down more, of a balanced market, and more of a buyer’s market coming up. At certain price points, we already have a buyer’s market over $400,000 and higher, you’ll see it is more of a buyer’s market. Houses remain on the market a little bit longer looking for buyers, and then under that price point, we see it is more of a seller’s market because inventory is a lot lower, especially 200 and under, 250 and under, and it does depend on the area of course. These are general summary statements, but you’ll you’ll notice it if you’re trying to look for a house or looking to sell your property.

So part of what we need to look forward to in the future here is that interest rates are going to tick up. That means buyers will buy less home if they were looking for a $250,000 home last year and they couldn’t find it, took a break over the holidays and are looking to resume, they may be looking at a little bit lower priced properties now because interest rates are ticking up. And they’re predicted to go into the high fives by the end of 2019, and that may mean in the sixes next year.

So that’s important now, so the sellers may want to get their properties ready and get them on the market, and buyers need to ship and shape up their credit and income and debt portfolio, so they can present themselves to their lenders and get great financing terms, maybe buy their rate down a little bit of for the upcoming year. Or, maybe qualify for some homebuying programs. There are grants and bond programs through the state of Florida that will help first-time homebuyers with down payment assistance. And then there’s of course sellers making your properties attractive with concessions to buyers and offering closing cost assistance, or flooring credits, or repair items, etc. You can always work it in and you can market it, just kind of depends on what’s going on with your property specifically as a seller, and then of course if the buyer is looking for something specifically, having an open mind on how to get there.

That being said, I encourage both sellers and buyers, surround yourself with professionals and a good team of people, people were working for you and in your best interest, who are going to help you to get the most for your home and help the buyer get the most for what they’re buying, the price and the affordability of what they’re doing.

So if you have any questions, let me know. Give me a call, you can text, you can send me a message on Facebook, or email, I’d love to speak with you about that, and I hope you have a great day! Thank you so much!

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